news-bot

OpenTool app
Copy strategy · 0 times Star· 0 Watch· 0
glucryptoRefresh package-lock for opentool 0.19.5
typescript
import type {
  NewsContinuationGateResult,
  NewsEventSignal,
  NewsPredictionMarketMatchedMarket,
  NewsPropositionSignal,
} from "opentool/adapters/news";

import type { NewsTradeSignal, SimpleNewsBotConfig } from "./config";
import type { SimpleNewsBotSignal } from "./news-core";

export type NewsTradeDecision = {
  signal: NewsTradeSignal;
  reason: string;
  blockedByGate: boolean;
  eventState: string | null;
  propositionAnswer: string | null;
  confidence: number | null;
};

function resolveBlockedSignal(config: SimpleNewsBotConfig): NewsTradeSignal {
  return config.tradePolicy?.blockAction === "close" ? "sell" : "hold";
}

function includes<T extends string>(value: readonly T[] | undefined, target: string): boolean {
  return Boolean(value?.includes(target as T));
}

function parsePredictionMarketProbability(
  market: NewsPredictionMarketMatchedMarket,
  preferredOutcome: "yes" | "no",
): number | null {
  return preferredOutcome === "no"
    ? (market.noProbability ?? null)
    : (market.yesProbability ?? null);
}

function selectBestPredictionMarket(
  signal: SimpleNewsBotSignal,
): NewsPredictionMarketMatchedMarket | null {
  const markets = signal.predictionMarketContext?.matchedMarkets ?? [];
  if (markets.length === 0) return null;
  return [...markets].sort((left, right) => {
    const leftLiquidity = left.liquidity ?? left.volume ?? 0;
    const rightLiquidity = right.liquidity ?? right.volume ?? 0;
    if (rightLiquidity !== leftLiquidity) return rightLiquidity - leftLiquidity;
    const leftProbability = left.leadingProbability ?? 0;
    const rightProbability = right.leadingProbability ?? 0;
    return rightProbability - leftProbability;
  })[0] ?? null;
}

function resolvePredictionMarketSignalDecision(
  config: SimpleNewsBotConfig,
  signal: SimpleNewsBotSignal,
): NewsTradeDecision | null {
  const policy = config.predictionMarketSignal;
  if (!policy) return null;

  const topMarket = selectBestPredictionMarket(signal);
  if (!topMarket) {
    return {
      signal: policy.onNoMatch ?? "unknown",
      reason: "prediction market not found",
      blockedByGate: false,
      eventState: "question" in signal ? signal.eventState : signal.eventState,
      propositionAnswer: "question" in signal ? signal.answer : null,
      confidence: "question" in signal ? signal.propositionConfidence : signal.eventConfidence,
    };
  }

  const liquidity = topMarket.liquidity ?? topMarket.volume ?? 0;
  if (typeof policy.minLiquidity === "number" && liquidity < policy.minLiquidity) {
    return {
      signal: policy.onNoMatch ?? "unknown",
      reason: `prediction market liquidity ${liquidity.toFixed(2)} below minimum ${policy.minLiquidity.toFixed(2)}`,
      blockedByGate: false,
      eventState: "question" in signal ? signal.eventState : signal.eventState,
      propositionAnswer: "question" in signal ? signal.answer : null,
      confidence: "question" in signal ? signal.propositionConfidence : signal.eventConfidence,
    };
  }

  const probability = parsePredictionMarketProbability(topMarket, policy.preferredOutcome);
  if (probability == null || probability < policy.minProbability) {
    return {
      signal: policy.onNoMatch ?? "unknown",
      reason:
        probability == null
          ? `prediction market missing ${policy.preferredOutcome} probability`
          : `prediction market ${policy.preferredOutcome} probability ${probability.toFixed(4)} below ${policy.minProbability.toFixed(4)}`,
      blockedByGate: false,
      eventState: "question" in signal ? signal.eventState : signal.eventState,
      propositionAnswer: "question" in signal ? signal.answer : null,
      confidence: "question" in signal ? signal.propositionConfidence : signal.eventConfidence,
    };
  }

  return {
    signal: policy.action ?? "buy",
    reason: `prediction market ${policy.preferredOutcome} ${probability.toFixed(4)} on ${topMarket.title}`,
    blockedByGate: false,
    eventState: "question" in signal ? signal.eventState : signal.eventState,
    propositionAnswer: "question" in signal ? signal.answer : null,
    confidence: probability,
  };
}

function resolveEventSignalDecision(
  config: SimpleNewsBotConfig,
  signal: NewsEventSignal,
  gate: NewsContinuationGateResult | null,
): NewsTradeDecision {
  if (gate && !gate.allowed) {
    return {
      signal: resolveBlockedSignal(config),
      reason: gate.reason,
      blockedByGate: true,
      eventState: signal.eventState,
      propositionAnswer: null,
      confidence: signal.eventConfidence,
    };
  }

  const entrySignals = config.tradePolicy?.eventEntrySignals ?? ["escalation"];
  const exitSignals = config.tradePolicy?.eventExitSignals ?? ["de_escalation", "resolved", "contradiction"];
  if (includes(entrySignals, signal.signal) || includes(entrySignals, signal.eventState)) {
    return {
      signal: "buy",
      reason: `event signal ${signal.signal}`,
      blockedByGate: false,
      eventState: signal.eventState,
      propositionAnswer: null,
      confidence: signal.eventConfidence,
    };
  }
  if (includes(exitSignals, signal.signal) || includes(exitSignals, signal.eventState)) {
    return {
      signal: "sell",
      reason: `event signal ${signal.signal}`,
      blockedByGate: false,
      eventState: signal.eventState,
      propositionAnswer: null,
      confidence: signal.eventConfidence,
    };
  }
  return {
    signal: signal.triggerPassed ? "hold" : "unknown",
    reason: signal.whyNotTriggered ?? `event signal ${signal.signal}`,
    blockedByGate: false,
    eventState: signal.eventState,
    propositionAnswer: null,
    confidence: signal.eventConfidence,
  };
}

function resolvePropositionDecision(
  config: SimpleNewsBotConfig,
  signal: NewsPropositionSignal,
  gate: NewsContinuationGateResult | null,
): NewsTradeDecision {
  if (gate && !gate.allowed) {
    return {
      signal: resolveBlockedSignal(config),
      reason: gate.reason,
      blockedByGate: true,
      eventState: signal.eventState,
      propositionAnswer: signal.answer,
      confidence: signal.propositionConfidence,
    };
  }

  const entryAnswers = config.tradePolicy?.propositionEntryAnswers ?? ["yes"];
  const exitAnswers = config.tradePolicy?.propositionExitAnswers ?? ["no", "unclear"];
  if (includes(entryAnswers, signal.answer)) {
    return {
      signal: "buy",
      reason: `proposition answer ${signal.answer}`,
      blockedByGate: false,
      eventState: signal.eventState,
      propositionAnswer: signal.answer,
      confidence: signal.propositionConfidence,
    };
  }
  if (includes(exitAnswers, signal.answer)) {
    return {
      signal: "sell",
      reason: `proposition answer ${signal.answer}`,
      blockedByGate: false,
      eventState: signal.eventState,
      propositionAnswer: signal.answer,
      confidence: signal.propositionConfidence,
    };
  }
  return {
    signal: signal.answer === "unclear" ? "hold" : "unknown",
    reason: signal.reasoning,
    blockedByGate: false,
    eventState: signal.eventState,
    propositionAnswer: signal.answer,
    confidence: signal.propositionConfidence,
  };
}

export function resolveNewsTradeDecision(
  config: SimpleNewsBotConfig,
  signal: SimpleNewsBotSignal,
  gate: NewsContinuationGateResult | null,
): NewsTradeDecision {
  const predictionMarketDecision = resolvePredictionMarketSignalDecision(config, signal);
  if (predictionMarketDecision) {
    return predictionMarketDecision;
  }
  if ("question" in signal) {
    return resolvePropositionDecision(config, signal, gate);
  }
  return resolveEventSignalDecision(config, signal, gate);
}